Casa Blanca Weather

Live from Stanford
Measured at the Casa Blanca Farmstead station, with a forecast tuned to our village.
Forecast updated Sun 27 Sep 2026, 07:41 SAST
page refreshed 09:30 SAST · Sun 27 Sep

Now in Stanford

Measured, not predicted
16.5 °C
feels like 16.5 °C
Today · our forecast
20° 11°
💧 49% chance of rain · gusts 16 km/h sheltered, 38 open ground

Most weather apps show a predicted number for this time of day. The 'Now' reading here is measured live in Stanford.

Humidity
68 %
Wind
1.4 km/h
Gust (today's max)
1.8 (9.4) km/h
Wind from
SW 215°
Rain today
0.0 mm
Pressure
1018 hPa
Measured Sun 27 Sep 2026, 09:25 SAST at the Casa Blanca Farmstead station. The wind sensor sits among windbreak trees, so it reads lower than open ground.

Our 10-day forecast

🌬 Wind gusts: Sheltered is our gust forecast for the station, which sits among windbreak trees. Open ground is the big-model gust, a better guide for open, exposed plots.

Today27 Sep
20°11°
💧 49% chance · 1.1 mm
wind from SW
Sheltered16 km/h
Open ground38 km/h
Big-model forecast: 19° / 13° · 1.9 mm
Tomorrow28 Sep
22°10°
💧 0% chance · 0.0 mm
wind from SSE
Sheltered23 km/h
Open ground56 km/h
Big-model forecast: 20° / 12° · 0.0 mm
Tue 29 Sep
25°12°
💧 0% chance · 0.0 mm
wind from SSE
Sheltered26 km/h
Open ground65 km/h
Big-model forecast: 24° / 12° · 0.0 mm
Wed 30 Sep
33°12°
💧 0% chance · 0.0 mm
wind from SE
Sheltered21 km/h
Open ground58 km/h
Big-model forecast: 34° / 13° · 0.0 mm
Thu 1 Oct
31°15°
💧 2% chance · 0.0 mm
wind from NNW
Sheltered16 km/h
Open ground46 km/h
Big-model forecast: 36° / 18° · 0.0 mm
Less certain: the weather models disagree
Fri 2 Oct
22°12°
💧 56% chance · 3.2 mm
wind from NW
Sheltered22 km/h
Open ground55 km/h
Big-model forecast: 23° / 14° · 3.6 mm
Less certain: the weather models disagree
Sat 3 Oct
16°10°
💧 68% chance · 7.5 mm
wind from SSW
Sheltered20 km/h
Open ground46 km/h
Big-model forecast: 14° / 13° · 12.9 mm
Less certain: the weather models disagree
Sun 4 Oct
24°13°
💧 7% chance · 0.0 mm
wind from SSE
Sheltered21 km/h
Open ground46 km/h
Big-model forecast: 23° / 13° · 0.6 mm
Less certain: the weather models disagree
Mon 5 Oct
22°14°
💧 56% chance · 0.4 mm
wind from NW
Sheltered21 km/h
Open ground45 km/h
Big-model forecast: 22° / 16° · 0.9 mm
Less certain: the weather models disagree
Tue 6 Oct
19°13°
💧 60% chance · 4.6 mm
wind from WNW
Sheltered13 km/h
Open ground28 km/h
Big-model forecast: 18° / 16° · 6.0 mm
Less certain: the weather models disagree
High / low °C from our forecast💧 chance of rain · amount Arrow points the way the wind blows; letters say where it comes from6 of 10 days less certain

Charts

Temperature: our forecast vs the big model

Temperature: our forecast high and low with likely range, and the big-model forecast, °CToday: high 20.0 (19.4–20.6), low 11.2 (9.4–12.4) °C; big model 18.6/12.8Tomorrow: high 21.5 (20.8–22.4), low 10.4 (8.7–12.2) °C; big model 20.1/11.6Tue 29 Sep: high 24.9 (24.4–26.4), low 12.1 (11.2–12.6) °C; big model 23.6/12.3Wed 30 Sep: high 32.7 (30.6–34.1), low 12.1 (11.0–13.6) °C; big model 33.8/13.0Thu 1 Oct: high 30.8 (23.1–35.9), low 14.8 (13.6–16.4) °C; big model 36.4/17.5Fri 2 Oct: high 21.6 (18.3–23.2), low 11.8 (10.5–13.3) °C; big model 22.9/14.2Sat 3 Oct: high 16.5 (15.1–17.3), low 10.4 (8.6–12.1) °C; big model 14.1/12.7Sun 4 Oct: high 24.5 (23.7–25.2), low 12.9 (11.9–14.0) °C; big model 23.2/12.9Mon 5 Oct: high 22.4 (22.0–22.8), low 13.6 (12.2–15.0) °C; big model 21.5/16.1Tue 6 Oct: high 18.6 (18.4–18.8), low 12.8 (10.4–15.2) °C; big model 18.3/16.5010203040°CSun27Mon28Tue29Wed30Thu1 ⚠Fri2 ⚠Sat3 ⚠Sun4 ⚠Mon5 ⚠Tue6 ⚠Temperature: our forecast high and low with likely range, and the big-model forecast, °CToday: high 20.0 (19.4–20.6), low 11.2 (9.4–12.4) °C; big model 18.6/12.8Tomorrow: high 21.5 (20.8–22.4), low 10.4 (8.7–12.2) °C; big model 20.1/11.6Tue 29 Sep: high 24.9 (24.4–26.4), low 12.1 (11.2–12.6) °C; big model 23.6/12.3Wed 30 Sep: high 32.7 (30.6–34.1), low 12.1 (11.0–13.6) °C; big model 33.8/13.0Thu 1 Oct: high 30.8 (23.1–35.9), low 14.8 (13.6–16.4) °C; big model 36.4/17.5Fri 2 Oct: high 21.6 (18.3–23.2), low 11.8 (10.5–13.3) °C; big model 22.9/14.2Sat 3 Oct: high 16.5 (15.1–17.3), low 10.4 (8.6–12.1) °C; big model 14.1/12.7Sun 4 Oct: high 24.5 (23.7–25.2), low 12.9 (11.9–14.0) °C; big model 23.2/12.9Mon 5 Oct: high 22.4 (22.0–22.8), low 13.6 (12.2–15.0) °C; big model 21.5/16.1Tue 6 Oct: high 18.6 (18.4–18.8), low 12.8 (10.4–15.2) °C; big model 18.3/16.5010203040°CSun27Mon28Tue29Wed30Thu1 ⚠Fri2 ⚠Sat3 ⚠Sun4 ⚠Mon5 ⚠Tue6 ⚠
Our highHigh: likely rangeOur lowLow: likely rangeBig-model highBig-model low

Rain: amount and chance

Rain: our forecast and the big-model forecast amounts (mm), wettest model, and chance of rain (%)Today: our forecast 1.1 mm (range 0.0–2.7), chance 49%; big model 1.9 mmTomorrow: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 0%; big model 0.0 mmTue 29 Sep: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 0%; big model 0.0 mmWed 30 Sep: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 0%; big model 0.0 mmThu 1 Oct: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 2%; big model 0.0 mmFri 2 Oct: our forecast 3.2 mm (range 0.0–4.7), chance 56%; big model 3.6 mmSat 3 Oct: our forecast 7.5 mm (range 3.0–15.8), chance 68%; big model 12.9 mmSun 4 Oct: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 7%; big model 0.6 mmMon 5 Oct: our forecast 0.4 mm (range 0.2–0.5), chance 56%; big model 0.9 mmTue 6 Oct: our forecast 4.6 mm (range 1.9–7.3), chance 60%; big model 6.0 mm051015200255075100mmchance %Sun27Mon28Tue29Wed30Thu1 ⚠Fri2 ⚠Sat3 ⚠Sun4 ⚠Mon5 ⚠Tue6 ⚠Rain: our forecast and the big-model forecast amounts (mm), wettest model, and chance of rain (%)Today: our forecast 1.1 mm (range 0.0–2.7), chance 49%; big model 1.9 mmTomorrow: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 0%; big model 0.0 mmTue 29 Sep: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 0%; big model 0.0 mmWed 30 Sep: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 0%; big model 0.0 mmThu 1 Oct: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 2%; big model 0.0 mmFri 2 Oct: our forecast 3.2 mm (range 0.0–4.7), chance 56%; big model 3.6 mmSat 3 Oct: our forecast 7.5 mm (range 3.0–15.8), chance 68%; big model 12.9 mmSun 4 Oct: our forecast 0.0 mm (range 0.0–0.0), chance 7%; big model 0.6 mmMon 5 Oct: our forecast 0.4 mm (range 0.2–0.5), chance 56%; big model 0.9 mmTue 6 Oct: our forecast 4.6 mm (range 1.9–7.3), chance 60%; big model 6.0 mm051015200255075100mmchance %Sun27Mon28Tue29Wed30Thu1 ⚠Fri2 ⚠Sat3 ⚠Sun4 ⚠Mon5 ⚠Tue6 ⚠
Our rain (mm)Big-model rain (mm)Wettest model (mm)Chance of rain (%, right axis)

Wind gusts: sheltered vs open ground

Wind gusts: sheltered (our forecast, with likely range) vs open ground (big model), km/h; strong-wind line at 35 km/hstrong wind 35Today: sheltered gust 16 km/h (15–16), from SW; open ground 38 km/hTomorrow: sheltered gust 23 km/h (21–25), from SSE; open ground 56 km/hTue 29 Sep: sheltered gust 26 km/h (24–29), from SSE; open ground 65 km/hWed 30 Sep: sheltered gust 21 km/h (15–24), from SE; open ground 58 km/hThu 1 Oct: sheltered gust 16 km/h (13–18), from NNW; open ground 46 km/hFri 2 Oct: sheltered gust 22 km/h (21–23), from NW; open ground 55 km/hSat 3 Oct: sheltered gust 20 km/h (18–24), from SSW; open ground 46 km/hSun 4 Oct: sheltered gust 21 km/h (18–24), from SSE; open ground 46 km/hMon 5 Oct: sheltered gust 21 km/h (17–25), from NW; open ground 45 km/hTue 6 Oct: sheltered gust 13 km/h (10–15), from WNW; open ground 28 km/h020406080km/hSun27Mon28Tue29Wed30Thu1 ⚠Fri2 ⚠Sat3 ⚠Sun4 ⚠Mon5 ⚠Tue6 ⚠Wind gusts: sheltered (our forecast, with likely range) vs open ground (big model), km/h; strong-wind line at 35 km/hstrong wind 35Today: sheltered gust 16 km/h (15–16), from SW; open ground 38 km/hTomorrow: sheltered gust 23 km/h (21–25), from SSE; open ground 56 km/hTue 29 Sep: sheltered gust 26 km/h (24–29), from SSE; open ground 65 km/hWed 30 Sep: sheltered gust 21 km/h (15–24), from SE; open ground 58 km/hThu 1 Oct: sheltered gust 16 km/h (13–18), from NNW; open ground 46 km/hFri 2 Oct: sheltered gust 22 km/h (21–23), from NW; open ground 55 km/hSat 3 Oct: sheltered gust 20 km/h (18–24), from SSW; open ground 46 km/hSun 4 Oct: sheltered gust 21 km/h (18–24), from SSE; open ground 46 km/hMon 5 Oct: sheltered gust 21 km/h (17–25), from NW; open ground 45 km/hTue 6 Oct: sheltered gust 13 km/h (10–15), from WNW; open ground 28 km/h020406080km/hSun27Mon28Tue29Wed30Thu1 ⚠Fri2 ⚠Sat3 ⚠Sun4 ⚠Mon5 ⚠Tue6 ⚠
Sheltered gust (our forecast)Sheltered: likely rangeOpen-ground gust (big model)Strong-wind line 35 km/h

Dotted line = strong-wind warning level (35 km/h sheltered gust). Orange ⚠ days are less certain. Exact numbers are on the 10-day cards.

How this works

Our forecast takes four big global weather models, checks each one against three years of readings from the Casa Blanca Farmstead station, corrects their usual mistakes for this spot and combines them. The big-model forecast is the leading global model on its own, without local correction, shown for comparison. Only the Now panel is measured; everything else is a forecast.

Typical miss over the past yearOur forecastBig-model forecast
Tomorrow's high1.0 °C1.8 °C
Tomorrow's low1.2 °C1.8 °C
Rain amount on wet days3.3 mm3.5 mm

Typical miss = how far the forecast usually ends up from what the station actually measured (smaller is better).

Accuracy details and technical notes

Accuracy details

Live verification of issued forecasts (micro-local v2 vs raw ECMWF, by lead time)

No issued v2 forecast has been verified yet: scores appear once a forecast's target day has a complete station record (from tomorrow's update onwards). This table fills in automatically.

Backtest headline: test year 1 Oct 2025 – 25 Sep 2026 (corrections trained on data up to 30 Sep 2025)

MeasureMicro-localRaw ECMWFn days
Daily high, day-ahead (°C)MAE 1.01, bias +0.04MAE 1.77, bias -1.26359
Daily high, same-day issue (°C)MAE 0.98, bias +0.03–359
Daily low, day-ahead (°C)MAE 1.21, bias -0.13MAE 1.75, bias +1.40359
Daily low, same-day issue (°C)MAE 0.86, bias -0.41–359
Rain yes/no ≥0.5 mm (skill score HSS, higher is better)HSS 0.70 (hit rate 85%, false alarms 28%)HSS 0.69 (hit rate 87%, false alarms 30%)359
Rain amount on wet days (mm)MAE 3.27, bias -0.82MAE 3.52, bias -1.75
Daily max gust at the station (km/h)MAE 3.7, bias -2.4MAE 22.8, bias +22.8*359
Max hourly wind speed at the station (km/h)MAE 1.3, bias -0.5MAE 14.3, bias +14.3*359
Afternoon wind direction (station vane)MAE 54°, 52% within 45°MAE 70°, 36% within 45°327
Strong-wind days (station gust ≥40 km/h)2 hits, 3 misses, 0 false alarms5 hits, 0 misses, 218 false alarms (≥40)

MAE = typical miss; bias = forecast minus station (negative = forecast too low). *Raw ECMWF wind is an open-ground 10 m value, so most of its "error" against this sheltered 2.5 m anemometer is the site effect, not a model failure; for exposed open ground, spraying or fire risk, use the raw ECMWF gust as the guide. The strong-wind flag fires when the site gust forecast is ≥ 35 km/h; the corrected blend underestimates the very strongest days. Sources: summary.md, wind_summary.md, micro_forecasts/v2_validation.json.

Model notes

  • Today: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30); nowcast: station min 13.2 so far (to 07:40, 93 pts) · models bm+gfs+icon+ukmo
  • Tomorrow: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs+icon+ukmo
  • Tue 29 Sep: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs+icon+ukmo
  • Wed 30 Sep: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs+icon+ukmo
  • Thu 1 Oct: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs+icon+ukmo
  • Fri 2 Oct: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs+icon+ukmo
  • Sat 3 Oct: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs+icon
  • Sun 4 Oct: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs
  • Mon 5 Oct: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs
  • Tue 6 Oct: rolling30_hi_bias=+0.87 (n=30) · models bm+gfs

Method

Our forecast ("micro-local v2") = four global models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, UKMO via Open-Meteo), each corrected against three years of this station's records and blended (rolling 30-day high bias, same-day nowcast, quantile-mapped rain, linear wind corrections with a +67° vane rotation). The big-model forecast is raw ECMWF IFS. Sheltered wind is what the station's anemometer at 2.5 m behind windbreak trees will record, usually well under half the open-ground value; open ground is the raw ECMWF 10 m gust. "Less certain" days: fewer than 4 models, highs spread ≥ 4 °C, lows ≥ 5 °C, ensemble 10–90 % spread of highs ≥ 8 °C, or rain spread ≥ 10 mm. Station ISTANF10 · Casa Blanca Farmstead, Stanford, Western Cape. Times are SAST. Source file: issued_2026-09-27_v2.csv.